Gabriel Lozada, a theoretical mathematician at the University of Utah and a pro bono consultant for the Utah Rivers Council, suspected that government officials were overstating the benefits and ignoring potential costs of a water supply pipeline that would take water Colorado River out of Lake Powell to southern Utah. So Lozada built a mathematical model of possible economic impacts and found that, despite Washington County Water Conservancy District’s assurances of a per person rate increase of only $25, rates were more likely to increase by $300 – a 300 percent increase. County officials believe the expense – whatever it might turn out to be – will be worth it to provide insurance from water shortages.