As the climate changes and the Earth warms, predicting future water availability will become increasingly challenging. Enter the climate model.
It’s hard to predict how the future will look when the data from the past doesn’t look anything like conditions we see in the present, especially when we know what extremes the future holds. Still, water managers have to plan and so they rely on climate models to help them prepare for our water futures.
A new study looked at how to improve climate model projections using those models that historically predicted rainfall events more closely to observed events. They showed that previous projections of very extreme future changes in water availability are less likely to occur on 73% of the land’s surface.
We’ve all been preaching the doom and gloom scenario of “dry regions will get drier and wet regions will get wetter.” Maybe future reality won’t be quite so harsh for most of us.